Tinubu Debt Service Claim Faces Questions Over Missing Fiscal Records

President Bola Tinubu has declared that Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio has fallen to about 50 percent, a claim that has raised debate over the accuracy of official economic data.

He made the statement during his Independence Day address on Wednesday, insisting that his government had restored fiscal health by cutting the ratio from 97 percent to below 50 percent. He also said his team reduced “Ways and Means” borrowings that previously destabilized the economy and drove inflation.

The assertion comes even though his administration has withheld key fiscal documents such as budget performance reports, preventing Nigerians from independently confirming the state of public finances.

Tinubu has made similar claims before. In his two-year anniversary speech, he stated that the ratio dropped from 100 percent in 2022 to 40 percent in 2024 under his leadership. He also credited reforms with boosting state revenues by over ₦6 trillion in 2024, enabling state governments to ease debt pressure, pay salaries, and invest in infrastructure.

But Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data shows a more complex reality. Its fourth-quarter 2024 economic report recorded federal revenue at ₦2.52 trillion, while debt service reached ₦2.20 trillion, leaving the ratio close to 87 percent. In the second quarter, the ratio was even worse, with debt servicing at ₦3.77 trillion compared to ₦2.41 trillion in revenue.

The discrepancy has fueled doubts about fiscal transparency, with critics recalling similar disputes earlier this year. In May, the Presidency claimed Nigeria was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world, citing IMF figures. However, the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook placed Nigeria 37th in global real GDP growth projections.

The growing gap between government statements and official data continues to raise concerns over public trust, at a time when Nigeria is grappling with rising debt, weak revenues, and mounting economic pressure.