Buhari’s Death Reignites Debate Over Economic Legacy Marked By Reforms And Crises

The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari at age 82 has sparked renewed analysis of the economic events that defined his presidency.

A retired military general who led Nigeria from 2015 to 2023, Buhari’s two-term civilian leadership was shaped by bold reforms, painful downturns, and controversial policies.

During his presidency, Nigeria experienced two recessions — the first in 2016, driven by crashing oil prices and a poorly managed currency crisis, and the second in 2020, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. These back-to-back contractions, the first under any civilian government in Nigeria, underscored the country’s vulnerability to external shocks and internal policy missteps.

One of Buhari’s more celebrated moves was his full implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA), which improved transparency by consolidating government revenues. His administration also launched the N2.3 trillion Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) in response to COVID-19, while initiating a long-term poverty reduction strategy.

But the same administration drew criticism for controversial decisions like the 2019 land border closures. Aimed at curbing smuggling and boosting local production, the move led to sharp rises in food prices and economic strain.

A major structural reform came in July 2022 when the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) transitioned into a limited liability company. Buhari said the change would free the company from bureaucracy and enhance its profitability, but it also coincided with one of Nigeria’s worst oil production periods, worsened by theft and pipeline vandalism.

Despite booming global oil prices in 2022, Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC production quota, at times recording output below 1 million barrels per day—its lowest in decades. The country also lost billions of dollars to oil theft during this period.

A petroleum scandal rocked the nation in early 2022 when substandard petrol, containing high methanol content, was imported and distributed. It triggered nationwide fuel scarcity and forced regulators to recall large volumes of off-spec fuel, further damaging confidence in the sector.

On the monetary front, Buhari’s tenure saw the naira nosedive. In 2015, the official exchange rate was around ₦197 per dollar; by the end of his administration, it had fallen to ₦464 officially and ₦762 on the black market. His decision to redesign the ₦200, ₦500, and ₦1000 notes late in 2022 stirred controversy. Critics described the changes as cosmetic and accused the Central Bank of using the policy to restrict cash during a heated election period.

Public debt soared under Buhari, with Nigeria’s debt stock climbing from ₦42 trillion in 2015 to ₦77 trillion by 2023. Debt servicing costs also increased sharply, prompting concerns about the country’s long-term fiscal health.

Still, Buhari’s support for Nigerians on the global stage was notable. He endorsed Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala for WTO director-general, backed Akinwumi Adesina for a second term at AfDB, and oversaw the reappointment of Benedict Oramah at Afreximbank.

As Nigerians reflect on his passing, Buhari’s economic legacy remains complex: a mix of reformist ambition, flawed execution, and enduring questions about sustainability.