Why ADC Supreme Court Battle May Weaken Anti-APC Coalition

The leadership dispute within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is heading to the Supreme Court, but the legal battle may not be the party’s biggest problem. As rival groups continue to fight over control of the party, the opposition coalition faces the challenge of convincing Nigerians that it is prepared for the 2027 general election.

Although the Supreme Court is expected to determine the legal issues surrounding the party’s leadership, many observers believe the prolonged internal crisis may have already weakened the coalition’s political standing.

For months, attention has remained on court cases, rival factions, party congresses and constitutional disagreements instead of policy proposals, governance plans and election campaigns. Each court decision has been followed by fresh appeals, keeping the party locked in uncertainty.

The latest Court of Appeal judgment has added a new twist to the crisis. Beyond the disagreement between the factions led by former Senate President David Mark and Dumebi Kachikwu, the case has raised questions about whether the opposition can remain united while struggling over control of its own structures.

In a split decision, the Court of Appeal upheld an earlier judgment of the Federal High Court that restrained the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from recognising state congresses organised by committees appointed by the David Mark-led National Working Committee.

The appellate court ruled that under the ADC constitution, elected state executive committees have the authority to conduct state congresses rather than committees appointed by the national leadership. It also agreed that the congresses and the national convention organised under the Mark leadership were invalid because they allegedly breached an earlier court order.

The David Mark faction has already appealed the judgment at the Supreme Court, maintaining that the ruling neither removed its leadership nor affected candidates already submitted to INEC.

With the appeal now before the apex court, the legal dispute remains unresolved. However, many believe the political consequences have already begun to affect the party.

Legal analyst Liborous Oshoma, speaking during an interview on Arise Television, said the Supreme Court would mainly determine whether the caretaker committee that organised the disputed congresses still had the legal authority to carry out those activities.

According to him, the burden rests on the ADC to prove that the congresses and party primaries were conducted by recognised party structures and not by committees whose authority had been challenged.

He warned that failure to establish this could affect not only the party’s leadership but also its presidential ticket and other candidates. He also noted that time may become one of the biggest challenges facing the opposition before the next general election.

Beyond the legal issues, political observers believe the dispute has created uncertainty within the coalition.

The David Mark-led National Working Committee currently has candidates already uploaded to INEC’s portal, including the presidential ticket involving Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi, as well as many legislative candidates. Meanwhile, the Kachikwu faction insists it controls the legitimate party structures but does not have authority over those submissions.

This situation raises further questions about what could happen if the Supreme Court eventually upholds the Court of Appeal judgment. Even if another faction gains control of the party structure, the issue of candidates already recognised by INEC could create fresh legal and political complications.

On the other hand, if the Supreme Court overturns the Appeal Court decision and restores full authority to the Mark-led leadership, the coalition may still need to repair divisions created by months of internal conflict.

The crisis has also fuelled political debate over whether prolonged court battles benefit the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). While opposition figures have made such claims, no evidence has been presented to show that either the judiciary or INEC is acting on behalf of the government.

What remains clear is that lengthy legal disputes consume time, divide party members, discourage financial supporters and create uncertainty among voters.

Nigeria’s political history offers several examples of how unresolved internal disagreements can weaken political parties.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) spent years battling over its leadership during the Sheriff-Makarfi crisis before the courts eventually resolved the dispute ahead of the 2019 elections. The APC also lost all its victories in Zamfara State during the 2019 elections after the Supreme Court ruled that the party failed to conduct valid primaries.

These experiences show that political parties do not always lose elections because their opponents are stronger. Internal disagreements can also weaken their chances long before voters cast their ballots.

Several possible outcomes now lie ahead for the ADC.

The Supreme Court may uphold the Appeal Court judgment, creating fresh questions about the party’s congresses and leadership structure.

It could also overturn the ruling, allowing the David Mark-led leadership to continue managing the party and focus on preparations for the 2027 elections.

Another possibility is that the legal process could continue for several months. If the final judgment comes close to key electoral deadlines, whichever faction eventually succeeds may inherit a party that has already lost valuable time, momentum and public confidence.

For many Nigerians, the issue goes beyond the future of one political party. A healthy democracy depends on strong political competition and credible alternatives. If opposition parties remain occupied with internal court battles instead of presenting policies and engaging voters, the quality of electoral competition ahead of the 2027 general election could be affected.