Buhari’s Death Reshapes APC, ADC Battle in the North For 2027 Elections

The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari in a London hospital has triggered fresh political calculations within Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the emerging opposition coalition, African Democratic Congress (ADC), ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Both parties are now weighing how the former president’s absence will affect their influence—particularly in the North, where Buhari held sway for decades with a loyal mass following.

In the days since his burial in Daura, Katsina State, political figures have paid glowing tributes, citing his dominant role in Nigeria’s democratic journey and his near-mythical status in the northern region. His reputation as a kingmaker, especially within the APC, was unmatched. His endorsement often sealed electoral victories across various offices from state assemblies to governorship.

However, Buhari’s recent political silence has fueled speculation. Some observers believe that in his final months, the former president had mentally distanced himself from the APC and leaned toward the ADC, a coalition that includes remnants of the now-defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)—Buhari’s former political base. The exits of top APC figures like ex-ministers Abubakar Malami, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf Aregbesola, and former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai only added to that perception.

With Buhari gone, the question is whether his absence strengthens or weakens either party’s hand in 2027.

One APC chieftain, speaking anonymously, dismissed concerns, arguing that Buhari’s political capital had already faded. “Tinubu won in 2023 without Buhari’s active support. His reclusive lifestyle after office, plus rising northern criticism, suggests his influence had declined,” he said. He also referenced celebrations of Buhari’s passing in some northern quarters as evidence that the former president no longer enjoyed blanket loyalty.

From the ADC side, however, the calculation is different. An ADC official said Buhari’s death has effectively reset the political landscape in the North, making it open ground for both parties. “No single northern politician currently commands Buhari’s level of loyalty. That void makes the North a political battleground,” he said.

The ADC source also hinted that the large turnout by both APC and ADC leaders at Buhari’s funeral was part of a larger strategy to win over northern sentiments ahead of 2027.

Yet, the APC remains confident. National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka said the party would ride on Buhari’s legacy. “His passing created a vacuum, yes, but his achievements still inspire millions. His supporters will stay with the APC,” Morka stated. He denied claims that most of Buhari’s allies had defected to the ADC, adding that “a few may have left, but the majority remain with us.”

As 2027 approaches, both parties will be racing to consolidate their influence across the North, with or without Buhari’s physical presence—but likely still under the long shadow of his legacy.